By Harinder Mahil
Although many Canadians do not recognize it, Canada is under an economic attack by the United States. The US president does not respect Canadian sovereignty and would like Canada to become the 51st state. Donald Trump does not like the fact that Mark Carney stood up to him in his speech in Davos, Switzerland that was applauded by many around the world.
In the speech Prime Minister Carney had urged middle powers like Canada not to allow great powers to play them off against one another, to form new trade alliances, rather than allow great powers to exploit their dependence on trade as a means of subordinating them.
Trump, in an interview from Davos, called Prime Minister Carney by his first name and said “Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.” He added that Canada “gets a lot of freebies” from the US, and that “they should be grateful.”
We all understand that Trump does not like anyone standing up to him. It is also clear that he did not like the former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and does not like Prime Minister Carney. The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently gave some unsolicited advice to Prime Minister Carney when he said: “I would just encourage Prime Minister Carney to do what he thinks is best for the Canadian people, not his own virtue-signalling, because we do have a USMCA negotiation coming up.”
We all know about Trump’s post of a map showing Canada and Greenland as part of the United States.
Trump has already threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods if Canada makes a trade deal with China. Whether we make a trade deal with China or another country is our business not that of the US. If such a tariff is imposed by the US, it would lead to a two-year or longer recession in Canada with a severe impact on the GDP (which is estimated to drop about 4 percent).
Many experts suggest that Trump will cause significant economic hardship to Canada when CUSMA comes up for renegotiation in a few months.
This is a time for Canada to show unity amongst all governments – federal, provinces and territories. However, that is not what is happening in Alberta. The Alberta Prosperity Project is attempting to collect 178,000 signatures with the goal of triggering a referendum on the province’s independence.
This Alberta group is not only pushing for a referendum to break away from Canada but also meeting with Trump administration officials and seeking their help. According to press reports, Jeffrey Rath, legal counsel for the Alberta Prosperity Project has stated: “We’re meeting at a very high level.” These meetings are taking place as trade relations between Canada and the U.S. have become strained.
The Financial Times newspaper based in the UK has recently reported that the Alberta separatist group is seeking a potential $500-billion credit from the Trump administration in the event of a successful referendum on Alberta independence.
At a time when Canada needs to show unity in dealing with the US, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has continued to advocate for a “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.” What is “a sovereign Alberta”? Is it not a part of Canada
Premier Smith has said she won’t “demonize the roughly one million Albertans who are open to separation.” She seems to suggest that everyone who is open to Alberta independence is meeting with the US officials.
This is time to prepare for us in Canada for the future when relations between the US and Canada are likely to become ugly. It is time to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers – barriers that weaken us economically and contribute to our political divisions. It is time to make sure we have enough electricity, gas and to strengthen our telecommunications infrastructure. It is not the time to show disunity and get into discussions about our differences.
A referendum in Alberta, even if it fails, is likely to embolden the Trump administration to treat Alberta as a “51st state” thus undermining Canadian sovereignty. This would force the Canadian government to focus on internal situation rather than foreign policy and trade negotiations with the US and Mexico.
The referendum, if it takes place, would create a mechanism for the US to influence Canadian domestic policy, using the potential for secession as leverage in trade negotiations. Even a failed referendum could force the federal government to alter its environmental and economic policies to prevent separation, potentially aligning with the US interests for faster access to Alberta’s natural resources at the expense of national interests.
I hope that the people of Alberta will consider the implications of such a divisive debate and strongly oppose the group’s plan for a referendum.
Harinder Mahil is a human rights activist and is secretary of Dr. Hari Sharma Foundation.
