By Sawraj Singh
It is becoming obvious that America now does not have the military and the economic strength to maintain global hegemony. However, America wants to maintain its hegemony at every cost even if that can lead to a most destructive world war. America feels that it has two biggest challenges; Ukraine in Europe and Taiwan and the South China Sea in Asia. In Europe , it is feeling challenge from Russia and in Asia the challenge is from China.
I feel that still Europe is the top priority for America. Europe is not only the birth place of capitalism, it is also the birth place of the modern western civilization that should be more appropriately called imperialist civilization. To maintain western domination of the world it is important that there is a strong alliance of America and Europe. The two World Wars were fought in Europe. It is very likely that if there is a Third World War, that will also start in Europe. Today, a war in Ukraine can lead to Third World War.
America seems to feel that the balance of power in Europe is shifting in Russia’s favor and cracks are developing in America’s relations with its European allies and the Trans -Atlantic gap is widening. America’s alliance in the world is shrinking to an Anglo-Saxon alliance. In Europe America has only one reliable ally and that is England. France is asserting its independence. Germany does not seem to be enthusiastically supporting America in its Anti Russia campaign.
The French President ,Macron, was just in Moscow. He has made it clear that he does not completely agree with the American assessment of Russia. He seems to feel that Russia has legitimate security concerns and he also feels that Russia should be respected. Whether his mission will lead to a diplomatic solution remains to be seen. The German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, was just in America. He did not say anything about the Nord stream 2 pipeline that America wants closed. Germany has also refused to send any weapons to Ukraine.
Hungary wants good relations with Russia. Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary on a recent visit to Moscow called Russian demands reasonable and said sanctions are pointless. Turkey also looks keen to develop independent relations with Russia.
America seems to feel that it has to do something to keep the NATO and the western alliance together. This could be one reason for America to whip up the Anti- Russia hysteria. America is trying to use Ukraine to advance its own agenda. America is clamoring about an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine even louder than Ukraine itself. America feels that if a war starts in Europe, then the NATO and its western allies will rally behind it. America also seems to feel that if this happens then it can defeat Russia like it defeated Iraq and Libya.
However, America seems to be grossly overestimating itself and underestimating Russia. I feel that if a war starts in Ukraine, Russia is more likely to prevail. The reasons for this outcome are many. Geographically, Russia is right next to Ukraine whereas, America is so far. Russia has advantage in man power as well as fire power. Russian army is much more disciplined and organized than the American and the western armies. Russia has a psychological advantage. Russian soldiers will be fighting to defend their country and its honor. American and other western soldiers will not be clear as to what are they fighting for. There is also a cultural advantage for the Russians. Culturally, Russians and Ukrainians are very close. Many in the eastern Ukraine speak Russian and many are of Russian decent.
Russia and China have a very close and strong relation and China will try to support Russia in every possible way. China can open a second front in Asia. It can be in one of three places; Taiwan, South China Sea or its border with India. America may have to fight at two fronts at the same time. Even a worse scenario can develop. America may have to fight at more than two fronts. North Korea can start a war with South Korea and Japan . Iran can start a war with the American allies n the Middle East. Turkey wants to revive its lost empire. It may think that this is the right time to expand its territory.
India should deeply ponder about the possibilities of a war starting in Asia. If a war starts in Taiwan or in the South China Sea then America has to directly confront China. However, if a war starts between India and China then India has to confront China. However, it is not going to be a war between India and China alone. It is very likely that Pakistan will also join the war and India has to fight at the two fronts. America will like to see India fighting a war with China rather than fighting China itself. However, the Indian subcontinent can become an arena for the Third World War. This is not in the interest of the Indian people. India should try to protect the interests of the Indian people and should not become a pawn in America’s game.
America should give up its arrogance and accept the new realities that it is not the only superpower in the world and the world has become multipolar. It should not risk a destructive World War to maintain its hegemony. Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at sawrajsingh@hotmail.com.
